Driving toward disaster

Measures must be taken if the auto sector were to meet climate goals — and help mitigate the climate crisis   

The Philippines in mid-October hosted the Asia-Pacific Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (APMCDRR) 2024, during which event more than 7,000 delegates from governments, the private sector, and various organizations reviewed and assessed actions necessary to accelerate — lest crucial timelines are missed — the progress of risk-reduction efforts in the region.

Three pillars underlined the numerous talks during the four-day meet (many of which I sat in as part of a group engaged to handle communication materials). One was that measures and programs for reducing risks must adapt and must be relevant to local conditions — there is virtually no one-size-fits-all solution. Something meant for Dhaka may not work in Davao. 

Another was that plans must always include every individual of whatever age, gender, capability, ethnicity, and educational background. Intending to leave no one behind, steps like early warnings and evacuation strategies must consider people who may not have an internet connection, could not understand the language, or might be incapable of quick movement, among a myriad of other concerns.

Third was the critical issue of funding the staggering cost needed for disaster risk-reduction initiatives. And, here, throwing money — assuming there is even a little to throw about — on programs is not the solution. Rather, any allotment should come from risk-informed assessments. Data and modeling tools are crucial, their use allowing for better finance planning sustainable over a longer period.

That the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) special representative Kamal Kishore during the conference repeatedly appealed to participants to refrain from calling disasters as “natural disasters” was a revelation as well; “natural” implies a certain level of acceptance, as if nothing can be done about all disasters.

Which certainly is not the case. Because addressing factors causing climate change is a huge step in preventing climate-related disasters — which the UNDRR says have doubled in number and have significantly intensified when compared to those merely two decades back. And there is no doubting the fact that human activity is the major source of rising emissions, which in turn causes much of the climate crisis.

The auto sector accounts for a chunk of this. As such, the World Economic Forum (WEF) in a report published late last month cited the industry and Asia-Pacific in particular. The group called out the slow progress of decarbonizing Asia-Pacific’s transport systems, stressing the region “must tackle rapidly rising transport emissions” as the climate crisis turns worse.

Take note: Asia-Pacific is considered the most disaster-prone region.  

The WEF reported that since 2015 transport has been the second-fastest growing source of emissions, after the power sector, in Asia-Pacific. Transport emissions rose 6.6% from last year — the highest increase of any sector and any region — to account for 12% of the region’s and 40% of the world’s transport emissions.

Fact is, Asia-Pacific’s transport emissions already equals that of Europe’s and North America’s combined. Just as alarming, the WEF says; “Time is running out for decarbonizing transport in Asia and the Pacific. The region faces a critical choice as the climate crisis worsens.”

It does not help that progress in tackling emissions reduction is not all that good elsewhere, too. The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), for example, recently voiced its members’ concern that they may not be able to meet the EU’s emissions-reduction target in 2025. 

ACEA blames the “stagnant” market share of fully electric vehicles for this. 

The group called this “extremely worrying” for the region’s carmakers that have sunk billions in electrification, saying their investment has not been matched by government and consumer action. “[T]he other necessary ingredients for this transition are not in place and the competitiveness of the EU is eroding.”

It added that while ACEA members are “fully committed” to climate goals, “a substantive and holistic review of the CO2 regulation will be crucial to assess real-world progress against the ambition level.” 

Now, as one could easily surmise, the trouble with emissions is that it respects no borders. That coming from one region affects other regions. Emissions produced by Europe and Asia-Pacific, along with North America, has a tremendous impact on the rest of the planet. And, as the UNDRR noted, countries that have the least emissions ironically suffer the most from this.  

Globally, carmakers produced between 80 million and 90 million vehicles in 2023, accounting for anywhere between 10% and 15% in the world’s total CO2 emissions.

Still, the WEF considers Asia-Pacific as actually having made “significant strides” in decarbonizing transport, adopting electric mobility, and curbing subsidies for fossil fuels. But the region faces major hurdles. 

Among these are the uneven mix of transport infrastructure across countries, slow uptake of renewable energy sources, and an “overwhelming landscape of diverse sustainability initiatives, frameworks and tools” with which companies need to navigate without standardized guidelines.  

One way to address these is to overhaul Asia-Pacific countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), essentially roadmaps developed under the Paris Agreement that aim to cut national emissions and adapt to climate impacts. The WEF said many NDCs lack clear, ambitious targets for reducing transport emissions — a key discussion point in the COP29 climate summit to be held in Azerbaijan this month.

In any case, no sooner have APMCDRR delegates packed and gone home when Typhoon Kristine hit — causing over 100 deaths, an estimated P4 billion in damages, and untold trauma to millions affected — yet again illustrating the impact of disasters and the worsening climate crisis. As it stands, the auto sector is not completely without blame in all this.

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