What a difference a year makes, we always say, even if 2024 specifically felt like a blur. To be honest, there were months it seemed like we were treading water, only to have flurries of activities and developments here and there.
You could say that motoring and mobility in the Philippines was defined as having more of the same in the Philippines – which is actually good. Sales remained on the uptrend as of November 2024, with the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc. (CAMPI) reporting a YTD figure of 425,208 – up 8.8 percent over the same period (January to November) in 2023. Significantly, CAMPI nearly eclipsed its 2023 sales total (429,807) with still a month of selling to go. Even if we assume flat growth over the December 2023 figures, we’re looking at 468,960 units – tantalizingly close to the half-million mark many in the industry have been projecting years ago before COVID-19 scuttled everything.
During a recent traditional Christmas lunch with members of the media, Toyota Motor Philippines Corporation (TMP) Chairman Alfred Ty said as much: “The year seems headed to a strong finish. It is looking highly likely that the market will end with sales of around 470,000 units in 2024. That would be within breathing distance of our record of 473,000 units sold back in 2017.”
In a few weeks, we’ll know for certain. For now, I think it’s a good bet to assume CAMPI sales will breach 470,000 units.
And since we’re getting in the mood for projections, please indulge me in some amateur predictions for 2025 from where I’m seated. Time will tell if these declarations are foolish or factual.
Challenges love company
Honda and Nissan dropped a bomb with its recent confirmation of talks of merging. Though expected for a time now, it still was a bit surreal for two iconic Japanese brands to have even considered it. Officially they now have “signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to start discussions and considerations toward a business integration between the two companies through the establishment of a joint holding company.”
This obviously reflects the changes, challenges, and opportunities in the auto industry – one that is continuing to be kept in flux by the aggressive (and numerous) Chinese car companies which are redefining price point expectations. Different markets are employing various strategies to help mitigate or tamper this growth while maintaining healthy competition with other brands from other countries. Japanese brands, for instance, have historically been open to working together to cut on development cost and the sort. While we’re at it, who could forget the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance or even the vast Volkswagen empire of brands?
I suspect the automotive realignments and handshakes to continue this year.
Electrification
Electric vehicles (EVs) are not just in our mobility future, they are obviously here now. What seems to have changed though is its form. While perhaps more of us envisioned the more “traditional” battery electric vehicle (BEV) to shove the internal combustion engine (ICE) out of the way, a more practicable route appears to be hybrid electrics – whether a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) or plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV).
As the availability of charging points remain to be a relevant issue, I suspect that hybrids will continue to markedly outsell their exclusively battery-powered counterparts – particularly with the rise of so-called “range extenders” or “range extended electric vehicle,” promising (of course) greater range exceeding 1,000 kilometers.
If government and private sector can make great strides in establishing more public charging facilities, then we might see more action in BEVs.
Chinese incursions
By incursions I refer to more China-headquartered auto marques making their way to the Philippine market. This is almost a no-brainer. Perhaps buoyed by the apparent success of its compatriot companies and the continued vast potential of our market now again on the uptrend, more eyes are fixed upon our side of the planet. Currently, there are 21 Chinese brands here now, per an auto executive. Here’s hoping that these incursions will be inversely proportional to the territorial ones at sea.
Sales uptick
Taking off from my introduction, I believe that 2025 will see a continued uptrend in vehicle sales – brought about by healthy competition. More players in the market means good news for consumers like you and me, and the advent of Chinese brands – no matter how you feel about them – will have the expected benefit of making products and services better as companies compete for your budget. The Asian Development Bank also predicts 2025 GDP growth of 6.2 percent for the country, coupled with lower inflation of 3.2 percent – hopefully setting us up nicely for a better year.
More traffic
Unfortunately, the downside to a more vibrant industry – certainly in our case – is congestion, and so government needs to allocate our taxes more judiciously, putting them to work on traffic alleviation. We’ve seen how agencies like the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority are doing a yeoman’s job in clearing sidewalks for pedestrians and removing illegally parked vehicles from “Mabuhay Lanes.” Of course, we motorists have a direct hand in improving our daily travels. Let’s weed out selfishness and recklessness from 2025. It could be our best year yet!
